Research
What North Carolina voter data can tell a campaign
Plain-English analysis of North Carolina voter files and vote history. Free to read, with the query behind each figure.
Each briefing explains how we calculated its figures and what the data cannot show.
Who Actually Votes in a North Carolina Midterm
What 2022 turnout tells local campaigns about the 2026 electorate
North Carolina's midterm electorate is older and smaller than its presidential electorate. This briefing uses State Board voter and vote-history files to show who turns out, how county turnout varies, and why local campaigns should base their vote goals on comparable midterm results instead of registration or presidential-year turnout.
- 1,451,173 North Carolinians who voted in the 2024 presidential general did not vote in the 2022 midterm: 30.1% of that election's voters.
- Drop-off is strongly associated with age. 55.6% of 25-34 year olds who voted in 2024 skipped 2022, compared with 12.5% of voters 75 and older.
- The 2022 midterm electorate was 41.3% age 65 or older and 10.3% under 35.