Research
What the North Carolina voter file actually says
Original analysis of North Carolina's voter file and vote history. Free to read, no account, and every figure comes with the query we ran to get it.
One paper per general election. Every number says how it was worked out and what it rests on, and where the data will not carry a claim, the paper says that instead of reaching.
Who Actually Votes in a North Carolina Midterm
Presidential-to-midterm drop-off, electorate composition, and county-level participation in the 2026 cycle
Thirty percent of North Carolinians who voted in the 2024 presidential general did not vote in the 2022 midterm, and the people who disappear are young, unaffiliated, and disproportionately voters of color. The midterm electorate that remains is 41.3% over 65 and 10.3% under 35, against a registration file that is 27.9% and 25.7% respectively. This paper measures that gap across all 100 counties from the North Carolina State Board of Elections voter file and vote-history file, states what the data cannot support, and shows what a realistic win number looks like for a countywide race at 2022 turnout levels.
- 1,451,173 North Carolinians who voted in the 2024 presidential general did not vote in the 2022 midterm: 30.1% of that election's voters.
- Drop-off is a function of age before anything else. 55.6% of 25-34 year olds who voted in 2024 skipped 2022, against 12.5% of those 75 and over.
- The midterm electorate is 41.3% over 65 and 10.3% under 35. The registration file is 27.9% and 25.7%.