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Research

What the voting data shows

Analysis of voter participation and election history in North Carolina and Texas. Free to read, with sources and calculations behind the findings.

Each briefing explains how we calculated its figures and what the data cannot show.

  1. Texas early voting reaches 3.72 million in its first five days

    Through Friday, October 23, Texas reported 3.72 million early votes. Compare participation with 2022 and 2024, the changing county mix, and what it means for the Senate race.

  2. NC early voting reaches 1.58 million after the second weekend

    The official Monday report for North Carolina counts 1,583,181 early and mail ballots through Sunday, 36.4% ahead of 2022. Explore weekend additions, party participation and presidential-cycle comparisons.

  3. NC early voting tops 1.2 million as Republicans narrow their 2022 gap

    North Carolina has reported 1,269,919 accepted early and mail ballots, 37.3% ahead of 2022. Republican participation is catching up as the party mix shifts.

  4. NC early voting is 38% ahead of 2022

    After five days of in-person voting, North Carolina has reported 733,299 accepted ballots. Compare party participation with the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential election.

  5. NC mail voting trails 2022 as in-person voting approaches

    North Carolina mail voting is 21.8% below the matching 2022 pace. Follow party participation, voter demographics, and in-person early voting through the midterms.

  6. NCMidterm cycle

    Who Actually Votes in a North Carolina Midterm

    What 2022 turnout tells local campaigns about the 2026 electorate

    North Carolina's midterm electorate is older and smaller than its presidential electorate. This briefing uses State Board voter and vote-history files to show who turns out, how county turnout varies, and why local campaigns should base their vote goals on comparable midterm results instead of registration or presidential-year turnout.

    • 1,451,173 North Carolinians who voted in the 2024 presidential general did not vote in the 2022 midterm: 30.1% of that election's voters.
    • Drop-off is strongly associated with age. 55.6% of 25-34 year olds who voted in 2024 skipped 2022, compared with 12.5% of voters 75 and older.
    • The 2022 midterm electorate was 41.3% age 65 or older and 10.3% under 35.

    Version 1.1 · Published · Data from North Carolina State Board of Elections, loaded

    Read the paperReferencesReplication package