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Audit trail

References for Who Actually Votes in a North Carolina Midterm

Every reference in the paper appears here with the URL that was actually retrieved and the text that confirmed it. Nothing was accepted on the strength of a citation in another work's bibliography.

Read the paperReplication package

Audit trail for every reference cited in index.md.

Each entry records the URL actually retrieved and what that retrieval confirmed. No reference appears in the paper unless it appears here. Nothing here was accepted on the strength of a secondhand citation in another work's bibliography.

Verified 2026-08-08.

Scholarly references#

Ansolabehere and Hersh 2012#

Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Eitan Hersh. 2012. "Validation: What Big Data Reveal About Survey Misreporting and the Real Electorate." Political Analysis 20(4): 437-459. DOI: 10.1093/pan/mps023.

  • Retrieved: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps023, which redirects to https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198700013152/type/journal_article
  • Confirmed on the publisher page: title, both authors, volume 20, issue 4, pages 437-459, year 2012.
  • Confirming text from the abstract: "nonvoters who are politically engaged and equipped with politically relevant resources consistently misreport that they voted".

Ansolabehere and Hersh 2017#

Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Eitan D. Hersh. 2017. "ADGN: An Algorithm for Record Linkage Using Address, Date of Birth, Gender, and Name." Statistics and Public Policy 4(1): 1-10. DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2017.1389620.

  • Retrieved: https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1080/2330443X.2017.1389620
  • Confirmed from the Crossref registration: title, both authors, container title, volume 4, issue 1, pages 1-10, year 2017.
  • Limitation of this verification. The Taylor and Francis landing page returns HTTP 403 to automated retrieval, so the publisher page itself was not read. The Crossref DOI registration is authoritative for existence and metadata but is not the article.

Hersh 2015#

Hersh, Eitan D. 2015. Hacking the Electorate: How Campaigns Perceive Voters. New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-10289-7.

  • Retrieved: https://assets.cambridge.org/97811071/02897/frontmatter/9781107102897_frontmatter.pdf, the publisher-hosted front matter.
  • Confirming text from the title and copyright pages: "Hacking the Electorate / How Campaigns Perceive Voters / EITAN D. HERSH" and "First published 2015 ... isbn 978-1-107-10289-7 Hardback".
  • The Cambridge Core book landing page returned HTTP 500; the publisher's own asset host was used instead.

Silver, Anderson and Abramson 1986#

Silver, Brian D., Barbara A. Anderson, and Paul R. Abramson. 1986. "Who Overreports Voting?" American Political Science Review 80(2): 613-624. DOI: 10.2307/1958277.

  • Retrieved: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/who-overreports-voting/150512926F95A11268E31347A8D50248
  • Confirming text from the abstract: "Respondents most inclined to overreport their voting are those who are highly educated, those most supportive of the regime norm of voting".

Bernstein, Chadha and Montjoy 2001#

Bernstein, Robert, Anita Chadha, and Robert Montjoy. 2001. "Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters." Public Opinion Quarterly 65(1): 22-44. DOI: 10.1086/320036.

  • Retrieved: https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/65/1/22/1888929
  • Confirming text from the abstract: "those who are under the most pressure to vote are the ones most likely to misrepresent their behavior when they fail to do so".

Campbell 1960#

Campbell, Angus. 1960. "Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change." Public Opinion Quarterly 24(3): 397-418. DOI: 10.1086/266960.

  • Retrieved: https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/24/3/397/1850336
  • Confirming text: "Regularities in the ebb and flow of voting with the alternation of Congressional and Presidential elections challenge the analyst to find an explanation."

Campbell 1987#

Campbell, James E. 1987. "The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline." American Journal of Political Science 31(4): 965-979. JSTOR: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111231.

  • Retrieved: https://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jcampbel/documents/JCAJPS1987Surge.pdf, the author's university-hosted copy, which carries the JSTOR cover page.
  • Confirming text from that cover page: "The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline / Author(s): James E. Campbell / Source: American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Nov., 1987), pp. 965-979".

Erikson 1988#

Erikson, Robert S. 1988. "The Puzzle of Midterm Loss." The Journal of Politics 50(4): 1011-1029. DOI: 10.2307/2131389.

  • Retrieved: https://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS125/articles/erikson1.pdf, a university-hosted scan carrying the JSTOR cover page.
  • Confirming text: "The Puzzle of Midterm Loss / Author(s): Robert S. Erikson / Source: The Journal of Politics, Vol. 50, No. 4 (Nov., 1988), pp. 1011-1029".

Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980#

Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven: Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0-300-02552-1.

  • Retrieved: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300025521/who-votes/
  • Confirmed on the publisher page: title, both authors, Yale University Press, 1980, 160 pages.

Leighley and Nagler 2013#

Leighley, Jan E., and Jonathan Nagler. 2013. Who Votes Now? Demographics, Issues, Inequality, and Turnout in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-15935-5.

  • Retrieved: https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691159355/who-votes-now
  • Confirmed on the publisher page: title, subtitle, both authors, Princeton University Press, November 2013, 232 pages.

Fraga 2018#

Fraga, Bernard L. 2018. The Turnout Gap: Race, Ethnicity, and Political Inequality in a Diversifying America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781108566483.

  • Retrieved: https://api.crossref.org/works?query.bibliographic=Turnout+Gap+Race+Ethnicity+Political+Inequality+Diversifying+America+Fraga
  • Confirmed from the Crossref registration: monograph title, subtitle, author, publisher, year, DOI.

Keith et al. 1992#

Keith, Bruce E., David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth Orr, Mark C. Westlye, and Raymond E. Wolfinger. 1992. The Myth of the Independent Voter. Berkeley: University of California Press. ISBN 978-0-520-07720-1.

  • Retrieved: https://www.ucpress.edu/books/the-myth-of-the-independent-voter/paper and the American Political Science Review review record at https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/...482E68BFDDEC361A72F208BA7CD2C23D
  • Confirming text from the APSR review title (APSR 87(2), 1993, 494-495): "The Myth of the Independent Voter. By Bruce E. Keith, David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth Orr, Mark C. Westlye, and Raymond E. Wolfinger. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992."
  • Noted discrepancy: UC Press lists 244 pages; the APSR review and other catalog records say 224. The paper cites no page count.

Wattenberg, McAllister and Salvanto 2000#

Wattenberg, Martin P., Ian McAllister, and Anthony Salvanto. 2000. "How Voting Is Like Taking an SAT Test: An Analysis of American Voter Rolloff." American Politics Quarterly 28(2): 234-250. DOI: 10.1177/1532673X00028002005.

  • Retrieved: https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1177/1532673X00028002005
  • Confirmed from the Crossref registration: title, all three authors, container title, volume 28, issue 2, pages 234-250, year 2000.
  • Limitation of this verification. SAGE returns HTTP 403 to automated retrieval, so the publisher page was not read.

Hajnal and Trounstine 2005#

Hajnal, Zoltan, and Jessica Trounstine. 2005. "Where Turnout Matters: The Consequences of Uneven Turnout in City Politics." The Journal of Politics 67(2): 515-535. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00327.x.

  • Retrieved: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/jtrounstine/HajnalTrounstine05.pdf, an author-hosted copy of the published article.
  • Confirming text from the article's first page: "Where Turnout Matters: The Consequences of Uneven Turnout in City Politics / Zoltan Hajnal, University of California, San Diego / Jessica Trounstine, Princeton University ... THE JOURNAL OF POLITICS, Vol. 67, No. 2, May 2005, Pp. 515-535".

Anzia 2011#

Anzia, Sarah F. 2011. "Election Timing and the Electoral Influence of Interest Groups." The Journal of Politics 73(2): 412-427. DOI: 10.1017/S0022381611000028.

  • Retrieved: https://api.crossref.org/works/10.1017/S0022381611000028
  • Confirmed from the Crossref registration: title, author, container title, volume 73, issue 2, pages 412-427, year 2011.

Anzia, Timing and Turnout#

Anzia, Sarah F. Timing and Turnout: How Off-Cycle Elections Favor Organized Groups. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

  • Retrieved: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo16956602.html
  • Confirmed on the publisher page: title, subtitle, author, publisher, 296 pages.
  • Unresolved. The publisher page gives 2013; review literature commonly gives 2014. The paper therefore cites this book without a year and prefers Anzia 2011, whose year is unambiguous.

Carolina Demography 2024#

Jayaraman, Bhairavi, and Emma Marshall. 2024. "Who are North Carolina's Unaffiliated Voters? 2024 Update." Carolina Demography, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. October 10, 2024.

  • Retrieved: https://carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu/2024/10/10/who-are-north-carolinas-unaffiliated-voters-2024-update/
  • Confirming text: "As of Sept. 28, 2024, North Carolina had 7.6 million registered voters. Of these, 2,886,573 million, or 38%, were registered unaffiliated." The stray "million" is a typo in the original.
  • This is not peer-reviewed. It is a university research center publication working from the same NCSBE files, and the paper labels it as such rather than presenting it as scholarship.

Primary sources: law and data#

Registration deadline#

N.C. Gen. Stat. 163-82.6(d).

  • Retrieved: https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/PDF/BySection/Chapter_163/GS_163-82.6.pdf
  • Confirming text: "(d) Registration Deadlines for a Primary or Election. - In order to be valid for a primary or election, the form: (1) If submitted by mail, must be postmarked at least 25 days before the primary or election ... (2) If submitted in person ... no earlier than 5:00 P.M., on the twenty-fifth day before the primary or election".
  • Subsection (f) additionally provides for a person who becomes qualified between the twenty-fifth day and election day.

Same-day registration#

N.C. Gen. Stat. 163-82.6B.

  • Retrieved: https://www.ncleg.gov/enactedlegislation/statutes/pdf/bysection/chapter_163/gs_163-82.6b.pdf
  • Confirming text: "163-82.6B. Same-day registration. (a) Notwithstanding any provision of law to the contrary, an individual who is qualified to register to vote may register in person and then vote at an early voting site in the individual's county of residence during the period for early voting".
  • Numbering correction, verified. 163-82.6A is no longer the same-day registration provision. Retrieved https://www.ncleg.gov/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/PDF/BySection/Chapter_163/GS_163-82.6A.pdf, which now reads "163-82.6A. Address and name changes at early voting sites." Session Law 2023-140 rewrote 163-82.6A and moved same-day registration to the new 163-82.6B. Any source published before 2024, including NCSBE Numbered Memo 2016-15, cites the superseded numbering.

NCSBE voter registration data#

  • Retrieved: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-registration-data
  • Confirming text: files carry "voter registration status (e.g., active, removed) and reason for status voter demographics, party affiliation, and address; voter county, precinct, and district information", and "Voter birthdate, Social Security number, and driver's license number are confidential under state law and are not included." Updated "weekly on Sunday evenings."
  • Statewide file confirmed as ncvoter_Statewide.zip via the bucket listing at https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=data/&delimiter=/&list-type=2.

NCSBE voter history data#

  • Retrieved: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-history-data
  • Confirming text: "Files contain a data entry for each election in which a voter participated in the past 10 years." Statewide file confirmed as ncvhis_Statewide.zip.

NCSBE registration snapshots#

  • Retrieved: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-registration-data, which describes the snapshots as "a point-in-time snapshot of information for active and inactive voters, as well as removed voters going back for a period of ten years", located under https://dl.ncsbe.gov/index.html?prefix=data/Snapshots/.
  • Not verified: the individual object names under that prefix were not enumerated, so no snapshot filename pattern is asserted in the paper.

NCSBE published turnout totals#

  • Retrieved: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-turnout/2022-general-election-turnout. Printed total: 3,786,904 (early voting 2,010,355, absentee by mail 187,746, election day 1,578,545, provisional 10,258).
  • Retrieved: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-turnout/2024-general-election-turnout. Printed total: 5,705,861 (early voting 4,214,782, absentee by mail 298,076, election day 1,175,854, provisional 17,149).
  • Both pages state they were generated from the history_stats and absentee_counts files for that election.
  • Three verified negatives, all of which constrain what the paper may claim.
  1. Neither page carries the word "certified" or any certification statement, so the paper does not describe these totals as certified.
  2. Neither page prints an overall statewide turnout percentage or a registered-voter denominator, so no percentage is attributed to NCSBE.
  3. https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-turnout/2018-general-election-turnout returns HTTP 404 and the turnout index does not list 2018. The paper therefore reports its own 2018 ballot count from the voter history file and does not cite an NCSBE-published 2018 total.

Checked and deliberately not cited#

  • Pew Research Center's work on drop-off voters. pewresearch.org returned HTTP 403 to retrieval, so it was not verified and is not cited.
  • Knack and Kropf 2003 on ballot roll-off. The Crossref registration carries the title word "International" where author copies read "Intentional", an unresolved discrepancy in the published record. Wattenberg et al. 2000 covers the same ground with clean metadata and is cited instead.
  • Any peer-reviewed source specific to the growth of unaffiliated registration in North Carolina. None was found and verified. The paper reports the trend from its own data and cites Keith et al. 1992 only for the general claim about registered independents, which is what that book supports.
  • Harvard Scholar hosted copies of the Ansolabehere and Hersh papers, which returned HTTP 403.