State of the Midterms 2026: Texas
Texas early voting reaches 3.72 million in its first five days
Texas reported 3.72 million early votes through Friday, October 23, the first five days of in-person voting. Participation is well above the last midterm, and counties Kamala Harris carried in 2024 account for a larger share of the early electorate.
19.56% of registered voters have participated, compared with 14.23% at the matching point in 2022. That is a 5.33 percentage-point increase, or 37.4% in relative terms. Texas has reached 80.8% of its matched 2024 participation rate.
In-person voting drives the increase#
3,535,211 reported votes came from early-voting sites, nearly 95% of the total. Mail accounts for 189,079.
Compared with the same point in 2022, Texas has reported 1.26 million more in-person votes and about 49,000 fewer mail votes. The overall count is up 48.1%. Accounting for registration growth reduces that increase to 37.4%.
The gains are widespread: 215 of 254 counties have a higher reported participation rate than at the matched 2022 cutoff.
| Election | Reported early and mail votes | Registration | Participation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 midterm | 2,515,156 | 17,672,143 | 14.23% |
| 2024 presidential | 4,507,733 | 18,623,931 | 24.20% |
| 2026 midterm | 3,724,290 | 19,041,684 | 19.56% |
The early electorate has a different geographic mix#
In the 12 counties Harris carried in 2024, participation has reached 89.5% of the matched presidential-year rate. In the 242 counties Trump carried, it has reached 75.5%.
Both groups are ahead of 2022. The registration-adjusted increases are 48.3% in Harris-won counties and 30.5% in Trump-won counties.
Their current participation rates are close: 19.81% and 19.38%, respectively. The larger gap in the presidential comparison reflects higher participation in Trump-won counties at this stage in 2024.
Harris-won counties now supply 41.8% of reported early votes, up from 37.7% at the matching 2024 point. That changes the geographic composition of the early electorate. It does not identify which candidates those voters support.
Dallas has passed its 2024 participation rate#
Dallas is at 21.10% of registered voters, compared with 20.08% at the matching 2024 cutoff. Its current rate is 105.1% of that presidential-year benchmark.
Travis is at 90.4% of its 2024 rate and Harris County at 81.9%. Collin and Denton are further below, at 76.0% and 70.6%.
The pattern crosses party geography. Hidalgo, which Trump carried in 2024, is at 97.5% of its presidential-year rate. Tarrant is at 91.2%.
What this means for the Senate race#
Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are competing in a closely polled race. The University of Houston's October 10–14 survey put them at 48% and 46%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% unsure.
The turnout figures show where participation is strongest relative to earlier elections. They cannot establish a candidate's lead. Texas does not register voters by party, and every county contains voters supporting different candidates.
What we'll watch next#
- Whether the geographic shift holds as weekend reports catch up and the final week brings more voters into the count.
- Whether suburban counties close their 2024 gaps. Collin, Denton and Montgomery remain below the statewide presidential-year comparison.
- Whether higher early participation becomes higher final turnout. These totals cannot separate additional voters from people voting earlier.