NC early voting reaches 1.58 million after the second weekend

In-person voting carries the lead#

1,523,135 ballots have been reported from early voting sites, up 42.4% from 1,069,676 at this stage in 2022. Accepted mail ballots remain lower: 60,046, down 34.1%.

The total has grown by 313,262 since Friday's article. That includes Friday voting. The narrower Saturday–Sunday reporting window added 129,665, of which 128,011 were in person.

That weekend increase is 33.6% larger than the 97,045 added over the equivalent reporting window in 2022. The Sunday reporting window alone added 38,508.

Democrats and unaffiliated voters supplied most weekend additions#

The Saturday-to-Monday change breaks down as follows:

• Democrats: 56,047, or 43.2% of net additions.
• Unaffiliated: 48,214, or 37.2%.
• Republicans: 24,986, or 19.3%.

The party mix changed again on Sunday. Democrats account for 46.8% of that day's reported additions, unaffiliated voters 38.5%, and Republicans 14.3%. Site schedules and reporting timing matter, so this is a description of the update, not a measure of statewide enthusiasm on a single day.

Across the full count, Democrats represent 41.6%, unaffiliated voters 34.6%, and Republicans 23.6%. Republican share is slightly above Friday's 23.3%, even though Republicans supplied a smaller share of the weekend additions.

Republican participation is nearly level with 2022#

Using the latest published registration totals, the participation comparison is:

The Republican shortfall has narrowed from 9.3% in our October 20 comparison, to 1.8% on Friday, to 0.6% now. Their ballot count is already 4.1% above 2022, but their registration base is larger too.

Statewide participation stands at 20.07%, versus 15.66% in 2022. That is a 28.2% increase in the rate after accounting for registration growth.

The previous midterm puts the presidential comparison in context#

At this point, Democratic participation has reached 73.4% of its 2024 rate. Unaffiliated participation is at 56.4%, and Republican participation at 38.8%.

How did the last midterm compare with its preceding presidential election?

Republicans look similar on this measure across the two midterms. Their ratio was 37.5% in 2022, compared with 38.8% now. Democrats and unaffiliated voters show much stronger participation relative to the preceding presidential cycle than they did last time.

The 2020 pandemic election had unusually heavy mail voting. That limits how much this comparison can tell us about enthusiasm or eventual turnout.

The lead remains broad, but fewer counties are ahead#

95 of 100 counties have more accepted ballots than at the matching point in 2022, compared with 97 in Friday's comparison. Alexander, Alleghany, Columbus, Gates and Pasquotank are below their earlier counts.

Wake and Mecklenburg together contribute 127,381 of the 422,434 additional ballots statewide, or 30.2% of the gain over 2022.

Black participation remains well above its last-midterm pace#

Black registrants account for 348,811 accepted ballots. Their participation rate is 22.96%, compared with 14.35% in 2022, an increase of 8.61 percentage points. White participation is 21.14%, up from 17.73%, a gain of 3.41 points.

Against 2024, Black participation has reached 71.3% of its presidential-year rate, compared with 52.5% for White registrants. Women account for 52.9% of reported ballots.

What we'll watch in the final week#

• Whether Republican participation crosses its 2022 rate. The remaining gap is small.
• Whether the weekend party mix carries into weekday reporting. Watch changes across the next several reports.
• Whether subsequent reports revise the weekend totals. County processing can change the reported count.

In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31, at 3 p.m. Election Day is November 3.