Campaign planning
How many votes do you need to win a local election?
A useful vote goal starts with expected turnout in your race, then accounts for the kind of seat you are running for. It is a plan for your campaign, not a prediction.
What to do first
- The answer depends on who can vote in your race, how many people are likely to vote, and how many seats are being filled.
- A countywide race, district race, and multi-seat at-large contest do not use the same target.
- Use a vote goal to plan outreach and fundraising. Revisit it when the field, turnout information, or your campaign plan changes.
Confirm how your race works
Before you do any math, check the geography and the number of seats on the ballot.
Start with the office, district, and election date. Then confirm whether the seat is countywide, by district, or at large, and whether voters are choosing one candidate or several seats.
That structure changes the goal. Your county board of elections can confirm the ballot and seat structure for your race.
Use comparable turnout
Past participation in similar elections is a better starting point than a statewide percentage or a guess.
Look at recent elections that reached the same voters. A presidential general election may not be a useful comparison for a local primary or a municipal contest.
The voter history data records when voters participated. It does not tell you who they supported, so it can help estimate turnout without pretending to know the result in advance.
Turn the number into a campaign plan
A vote goal is useful only when it changes what you do each week.
- Set a goal that states how many votes your campaign is working toward.
- Decide which voters you need to meet, which supporters need a reminder, and where volunteers can reach them.
- Set milestones for field work, fundraising, mail, and early voting. Review progress each week and adjust the work, not just the number.
Keep the estimate honest
A campaign plan should show what is measured, what is an estimate, and what still needs a decision from your team.
No tool can know how many people will volunteer, which doors will answer, or how every voter will respond. Start with the election data you have, then update your plan as your campaign learns from the field.
Competitive Campaigns uses turnout history for the race you choose. When the record is not strong enough, it labels the result as an estimate or tells you that it cannot give a number yet.
Use this in your campaign plan
Choose your race, build a practical plan, and work from the same voter data as your campaign gets organized.
Request access to build your vote goalNew accounts are reviewed before access is granted. Competitive Campaigns serves Democratic and progressive campaigns in North Carolina.
Check the source
These pages rely on the following public sources.